A look ahead at the 2021 NHL season

Hi friends,

Here are my 2021 NHL projected results. To produce these results, I ranked teams based on preseason projections about how talented each team's forwards, defenders, goalies, and special teams will be. Then, I ran through 56-game season using the intradivisional schedule to see all the different ways the season could play out. These projections do not adjust for injuries or luck because I'm not sure how to reasonably guess at those things.

The "peak" for each team represents the number of standings points that team wound up with most often. The low points in the range are season outcomes that did (and therefore, can!) happen but aren't very likely to occur (i.e. VGK could wind up with a 90-point season but I'm not betting on it).

The range of outcomes is widest where a team is ranked similarly with other teams in their division. If there are a few teams with similar overall ratings (i.e. the buzzsaw East Division), teams could conceivably wind up with a wide range of win/loss outcomes because they'll be playing in so many hotly contested games.

I'll have more to say soon but I wanted to carve out a home for these visualizations for now. I hope you enjoy and thanks for having a look around.